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EM TODAY

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EM TODAY

Asian markets are trading on a slightly stronger note this morning amid a broadly weaker USD.。

    Moving straight to CEEMEA, the Hungarian central bank (MNB) will hold its policy meeting; wedo not expect any change to rates. Despite a sharp acceleration of wage growth in recent months,inflation remains below target and inflation expectations remain anchored at very low levels.Moreover, the MNB has highlighted its readiness to use unorthodox policies to push expectationsfor tighter policy further to the back-end of the curve which is needed to encourage continuedfinancial outflows to cap HUF gains and maintain Hungary's current account surplus. CurrentlyFRAs price in a 25bp hike occurring in 15months time, which is broadly consistent with the MNB’srecent comments suggesting that rates could be left unchanged throughout both this year andnext. We will watch today’s comments closely for the central bank’s view of FX strength as wellas indications for its current dovish stance to be extended further.。

    In Asia, we note in the latest Asia FX positioning update that speculative investors remain shortUSD vs. Asia FX, with high-yielding INR and IDR remaining most popular. THB appears the mostoverbought currency according to our metrics; outperformance vs. regional peers, pick-up in bondinflows and forward hedging flows may indicate that the currency may be in technical overshoot.The Bank of Thailand has expressed some concerns about the pace of THB appreciation, and thepossibility of speculative pressure exacerbating the underlying trend.。

    Bank Indonesia will hold its Monetary Policy Committee meeting. While BI is widely expected toremain on hold, recent low inflation numbers have opened up room for the central bank to cutrates by 25bp. We believe a rate cut in Q42017is possible, and this may be flagged at next week’sMPC meeting.。

    Finally, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will conduct its EFN bill auction. While this isnormally a mundane event, the EFN operations are now drawing interest because of HKMA’s plansto gradually scale back excess inter-bank liquidity.。

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