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Fed Notes:What we got from the July FOMC statement

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Fed Notes:What we got from the July FOMC statement

In brief, the statement was very close to our expectations. The one minor surprisewas a more explicit firming in the Committee’s guidance about the timing ofan announcement to start its balance sheet unwind, which they now expect tobegin “relatively soon.” The Committee stopped short of explicitly saying thatthey would make an announcement in September. But this change, along with theinclusion of the statement that they are maintaining their reinvestment policy “Forthe time being”, come about as close to indicating a September announcementas they could.

    The other focal point of the statement was how the Committee described theinflation outlook. As we expected, they acknowledged the further decline in (PCE)inflation since the June meeting, and now view inflation as running “below” ratherthan “somewhat below” their inflation target. Overall, the updates to the inflationdescription in the opening paragraph were necessary “house cleaning” in lightof recent developments. Importantly, the Committee made no change to theirmedium term guidance on inflation, which is still expected “to stabilize aroundthe Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.”There were only minimal changes to the statement beyond these points. On theeconomy, the Committee upgraded their view on job gains following the strongJune employment report and modified their language on household spending,which they now describe as continuing to expand. Committee members wereunanimous in their agreement with this statement, unlike the June statement andrate hike where President Kashkari dissented.

    Our near-term policy expectations are unchanged following this meeting: Thenext policy change should come in September when the Fed announces thatit will begin in October a gradual tapering of its balance sheet reinvestmentpurchases. We see the next rate hike coming in December, assuming that shorterhorizon measures of inflation (e.g., 3-month annualized changes) strengthen andeconomic developments are broadly in line with our, and the Fed’s, expectations.

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